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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP