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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to PHI 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner pushed ob at PHI 7 for 1 yard (88-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.15 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model