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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model