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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model