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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model