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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 37

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 84-N.Paul to LAC 22 for 15 yards (20-D.King, 37-J.Addae).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model