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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 61

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.00 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP