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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 1 yard (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on WAS-40-J.Harvey-Clemons, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at WAS 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP