4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 85

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LAC 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model