Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Washington Commanders 6

(2:44) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 22 for 2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model