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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to WAS 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 22 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model