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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 55

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to LAC 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model