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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP