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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to WAS 18, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.31 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -1.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model