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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 51

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LAC 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP