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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP