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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model