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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to TB 18, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.18 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP