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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-W.Gholston), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model