Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

(1:14) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TB 29 for 19 yards (50-B.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.49 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model