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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model