4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-88-V.Mayle.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP