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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 95

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to BAL 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-S.Coates.

The Three Options

GO -3.59 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 95, worth -5.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model