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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 7-D.Kizer left guard to BAL 39 for no gain (57-C.Mosley). Cleveland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 03:17.)

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.32 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model