4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model