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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model