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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP