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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model