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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model