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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model