Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 22

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 87-J.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 16. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 16 for no gain (32-T.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model