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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 25

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.85 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model