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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 13

Denver Broncos 25 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Run formation) 23-D.Booker up the middle to IND 13 for no gain (32-T.Green; 44-A.Morrison).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP