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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 27 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor. IND-85-B.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model