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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model