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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to GB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.09 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP