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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to CAR 5, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-35-J.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model