Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 24 – Green Bay Packers 14

(5:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to GB 43, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-34-C.Artis-Payne.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.97 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model