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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 17 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to CAR 26 for 12 yards (29-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model