4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 24

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 57-M.Wilhoite (30-B.McDougald) at SEA 13. 57-M.Wilhoite ran ob at SEA 13 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model