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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP