4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to LA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at 50 for 4 yards (42-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model