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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 42

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to LA 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model