Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 57

New England Patriots 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

(:14) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to PIT 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model