Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – New England Patriots 16

(7:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to NE 28, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.37 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model