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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 28

New England Patriots 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model