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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – New England Patriots 19

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to NE 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-D.Amendola to NE 23 for 11 yards (54-L.Fort).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.04 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP