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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model