4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 59

New York Jets 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP