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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model